California Proposition 19 (2010)

Elections in California

California Proposition 19 (also known as the Regulate, Control & Tax Cannabis Act) was a ballot initiative on the November 2, 2010 statewide ballot. It was defeated, with 53.5% of California voters voting "No" and 46.5% voting "Yes."[1] If passed, it would have legalized various marijuana-related activities, allowed local governments to regulate these activities, permitted local governments to impose and collect marijuana-related fees and taxes, and authorized various criminal and civil penalties.[2] In March 2010, it qualified to be on the November statewide ballot.[3] The proposition required a simple majority in order to pass, and would have taken effect the day after the election.[4] Yes on 19 was the official advocacy group for the initiative and California Public Safety Institute: No On Proposition 19 was the official opposition group.[5]

Supporters of Proposition 19 argued that it would help with California's budget shortfall, would cut off a source of funding to violent drug cartels, and would redirect law enforcement resources to more dangerous crimes,[6] while opponents claimed that it contains gaps and flaws that may have serious unintended consequences on public safety, workplaces, and federal funding. However, even if the proposition had passed, the sale of cannabis would have remained illegal under federal law via the Controlled Substances Act.[7][8][9]

Contents

Effects of the bill

According to the State of California's Legislative Analyst's Office, the law would have had the following effects.[10]

Legalization of personal cannabis-related activities

Except as permitted under Proposition 215 and SB 420 laws, persons age 21 and older may:

Local government regulation of commercial production and sale

Local governments may:

Other permissions

Maintenance and addition of criminal and civil penalties

Fiscal impact

The State Board of Equalization estimated that imposing a $50 per ounce levy on cannabis sales could generate $1.4 billion a year in new tax revenue, thus generating a large amount of revenue at a time when the state was experiencing financial pressure.[11][12] This estimate came from the BOE's 2009 analysis of California Assembly Bill 390 based on a 2006 report entitled "Marijuana Production in the United States." These statistics were based on production estimates derived from marijuana eradication efforts from 2003 to 2005.[13]

According to the States Legislative Analyst's office, passage of the proposition could have a significant fiscal impact, including:[14]

In regard to potential savings from the reduction of incarcerated individuals, according to the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitations, 1,639 state prison inmates were in prison for marijuana-related crimes at a cost of $85 million per year.[15]

Arguments

Support

Several arguments were used in support of passing Proposition 19. Supporters argued that legalizing marijuana in California would help alleviate the drug war in Mexico. Based on the theory espoused by the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy that up to 60% of Mexican drug cartels’ profits come from sales of marijuana, legalizing the drug in nearby California would drastically cut their funding. As a result, supporters of this argument believed that legalization would lead to a decrease in drug-related violent crime in Mexico.[16]

Also cited were expected financial benefits of passing the measure. Economists lauded an analysis by Jeffrey Miron predicting $7.7 billion in projected savings on law enforcement expenses related to marijuana offenses, as well as expected revenues of up to $6.2 billion annually in taxes. These revenues were calculated based on marijuana sales taxes structured similarly to alcohol and cigarettes.[17] In 2008, California police made 78,500 arrests related to marijuana.[18]

Some civil rights groups lauded Proposition 19 as a way to reduce the disproportionate number of arrests of African-Americans and Latinos in California, many of which were related to marijuana possession. A study released by the New York-based Drug Policy Alliance found that despite having lower marijuana consumption rates than young whites,[19] young Latinos and African Americans were arrested for marijuana possession at much higher rates than whites in the 25 largest California counties.[20]

Supporters also argued that passing the measure would result in additional benefits including tourism and spinoff industries such as cafes and paraphernalia. Based on California’s wine industry, proponents of this theory anticipated that legalizing marijuana in the state could generate up to $18 billion, including the creation of 60,000-110,000 jobs.[21]

Some argued that legalization of marijuana could reduce drug-related violence, based on a study conducted by the International Centre for Science in Drug Policy. This study found that drug law enforcement contributes to increased levels of drug-related violence and suggests that "alternative models for drug control" may be necessary.[22]

Opposition

Opponents of Prop 19 argued that legalizing marijuana in California using the current proposition would have numerous negative consequences. They cited current Federal laws banning the cultivation, sale, and use of the drug, and claimed that it would create complications with drug trafficking and arrests[23] as well as challenge Federal authority.[24] Opponents also argued that Proposition 19 would complicate regulation across the state by allowing local jurisdictions the power to determine their own laws regarding cultivation and possession.[25] Opponents claimed that this increased government activity would absorb much of the projected tax revenue.[25]

Opponents of the measure also argued that it posed a public safety risk, based on research showing an association between marijuana use and voluntary treatment admissions for addiction, fatal drugged driving accidents, mental illness, and emergency room visits.[26] Opponents also compared Prop 19 to current alcohol and tobacco regulation, arguing that the associated potential healthcare and criminal justice costs outweigh the tax revenue generated.[27]

In response to supporters' claims regarding Prop 19's tax revenue generation, opponents claim the potential benefit is vastly overstated.[26] Opponents also criticized the measure for failing to include specific accompanying tax proposals.[28] Opponents also rejected the argument that revenue increases from the measure would improve the state budgetary deficit, dismissing it as a short-term fix.[29]

Since California essentially decriminalized the possession of marijuana in 1976, opponents reject the idea that legalization would free law enforcement to pursue violent crime in lieu of marijuana-related crime.[28] A Rand Corporation study found that passage of the measure would likely do little to curtail the drug trade and cartel violence stemming from Latin America.[30] Opponents also argued that passage would reflect softening attitudes in America toward drug consumption.[31][32]

Supporters of medicinal marijuana use expressed concern that Prop 19 could burden growers with increased regulations.[29] Also cited were potential confusion caused by double selling rules and a potential threat to existing protections for medical marijuana users.[33]

History

The first cannabis prohibition laws in California were passed in 1913.[34] In the 1972 California November elections, a similar initiative to Proposition 19 which would have legalized cannabis was on the ballot, coincidentally also named Proposition 19. It failed to pass, with 66.5% voters voting "No" and 33.5% voting "Yes."[35][36] In 1976 the passage of the Moscone Act changed small-scale possession of marijuana from a felony to a misdemeanor.[37] Two decades later in 1996, Proposition 215, which legalized medical marijuana, passed with 56% of the vote. In 2003 the California Senate Bill SB 420 clarified some of Proposition 215 to address critics and issues that arose since it was passed. In 2005, Oakland’s Measure Z, one of the first marijuana taxes, made marijuana possession one of the lowest law enforcement priorities. It was passed by 65% of the voters. In July 2010, Oakland approved a cultivation ordinance.[38]

Proposition 19's originator is Richard Lee, a marijuana legalization activist and medical marijuana provider based in Oakland. Lee named political consultant Chris Lehane as the head of the campaign to pass the measure.[39] In order to qualify for the ballot, the initiative needed 433,971 valid petition signatures. The initiative proponents submitted 694,248 signatures, and it qualified through the random sample signature check.[40]

Stance on initiative

In response to growing demand for a vote on the legal status of marijuana, California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said in May 2009, "I think it's time for a debate. And I think that we ought to study very carefully what other countries are doing that have legalized marijuana and other drugs, what effect it had on those countries, and are they happy with that decision."[41] However, in his signing statement for California SB 1449, which decriminalized possession of less than an ounce of marijuana from a misdemeanor to an infraction, Schwarzenegger said he opposed Proposition 19, calling it "deeply flawed" and claiming that its potential for generating tax revenue has been overstated.[42]

Support

Opposition

Polling history

Color indicates the simple majority in a poll.

Date of opinion poll Conducted by Sample size
(likely voters)		 Methodology Yes No Undecided Margin of error
April 20, 2010[131] SurveyUSA 500 Automated 56% 42% 3% ±4.4%
May 9–16, 2010[132] Public Policy Institute of California 1168 49% 48% 3% ±3%
June 22–July 5, 2010[133] Field Poll 1005 Live 44% 48% 8% ±3.2%
July 8–11, 2010[134] SurveyUSA 614 Automated 50% 40% 10% ±4%
July 23–25, 2010[135] Public Policy Polling 614 Automated[136] 52% 36% 12% ±3.95%
August 9–11, 2010[137] SurveyUSA 602 Automated 50% 40% 10% ±4.1%
August 31–September 1, 2010[138] SurveyUSA 569 Automated 47% 43% 10% ±4.2%
September 20, 2010[139] Public Policy Polling 569 Automated 47% 38% 15% ±3.9%
September 26, 2010[140] Field Poll 599 Live 49% 42% 9% ±4.1%
September 30, 2010[141] Public Policy Institute of California 2,004 52% 41% 7% ±3%
September 30–October 3, 2010[142] SurveyUSA 670 Automated 48% 41% 11% ±3.9%
October 2–4, 2010[143] Ipsos 448 44% 53% 3% ±4.7%
October 13–14, 2010[144] EMC Research 704 Live 40% 45% 14% ±3.7%
October 13–14, 2010[144] EMC Research 699 Automated 56% 41% 4% ±3.7%
October 10–17, 2010[145] Public Policy Institute of California 1,067 44% 49% 7% ±3.5%
October 15–18, 2010[146] SurveyUSA 621 Automated 48% 44% 8% ±4%
October 13–20, 2010[147] Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California 441 Live 39% 51% 10% ±4.6%
October 21–23, 2010[148] Public Policy Polling 622 Automated 45% 48% 7% ±3.9%
October 21–24, 2010[149] Suffolk University 600 Live 40% 55% 6% ±4%
October 21–25, 2010[150] SurveyUSA 594 Mixed 44% 46% 10% ±4.1%
October 14–26, 2010[151] Field Poll 1092 Live 42% 49% 9% ±3.2%
October 20–26, 2010[152] CNN/Time 888 Live 45% 53% 2% ±3.5%
October 26–31, 2010[153] SurveyUSA 587 Mixed 44% 46% 10% ±4.1%
October 29–31, 2010[154] Public Policy Polling 882 Automated 44% 51% 5% ±3.3%

Polling differences by poll type

Analysis of different polling techniques showed significant differentials in support for Proposition 19. Polls conducted by a live interviewer showed substantially less support for Proposition 19 than automated polls. It was suggested that there was a "social desirability bias" causing people to deny their support for Proposition 19 to live interviewers.[144][155]

Another discrepancy was noted in the Action News/SurveyUSA poll taken in late October. Those interviewed via landlines opposed the initiative 53% to 43%, while those on cell phones supported it 54% to 29%.[156]

Outcome

Proposition 19
Choice Votes Percentage
No 5,333,359 53.5%
Yes 4,643,751 46.5%
Total votes 9,977,110 100.00%

[157]

Results by major county

County (Major Cities) Yes No
Kern County (Bakersfield) 34.9% 65.1%
Fresno County (Fresno) 35.8% 64.2%
Stanislaus County (Modesto) 36.6% 63.4%
San Joaquin County (Stockton) 39.0% 61.0%
Sacramento County (Sacramento) 41.2% 58.8%
San Bernardino County (San Bernardino, Upland, Fontana, Ontario) 41.2% 58.8%
Riverside County (Riverside, Moreno Valley, Corona, Palm Springs) 41.9% 58.1%
Orange County (Santa Ana, Anaheim, Irvine, Huntington Beach, Laguna Beach) 42.2% 57.8%
Ventura County (Ventura, Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley) 44.8% 55.2%
Solano County (Fairfield, Vallejo) 45.5% 54.5%
San Diego County (San Diego, Chula Vista, Oceanside) 46.9% 53.1%
Los Angeles County

(Los Angeles, Long Beach, Glendale, Santa Clarita, Pomona, Palmdale, Pasadena, Torrance, Inglewood, Burbank, Carson, Santa Monica etc.)

 47.9% 52.1%
Santa Clara County (San Jose, Santa Clara, Cupertino, Gilroy, Palo Alto) 48.1% 51.9%
Napa County (Napa) 50.1% 49.9%
Santa Barbara County (Santa Barbara, Santa Maria) 51.2% 48.8%
Monterey County (Monterey, Salinas) 51.2% 48.8%
San Luis Obispo County (San Luis Obispo) 51.5% 48.5%
Alameda County (Oakland, Fremont, Hayward, Berkeley) 56.4% 43.6%
Marin County (San Rafael, Novato) 62.3% 37.7%
San Francisco County (San Francisco) 63.6% 36.4%
Santa Cruz County (Santa Cruz) 63.7% 36.3%

[158]

See also

California portal

References

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